Disaster Index: 5.1 Entry: The Likability Exposure Cause: Scotland achieving sufficient international goodwill that external observers now have opinions about what Scotland represents. Category: Emotional / External Dependency Evidence: Philipp Lahm, World Cup winner, has filed positive observations. Tartan Army footage is circulating internationally. The country is being used as an argument for a 48-team format. Scotland's presence is now load-bearing in someone else's case. Historical precedent: Scotland's supporters have won the Fair Play Award before the team has won anything at all. The goodwill runs ahead of the results. The results know this. Affected parties: The Tartan Army; Scotland's international reputation; anyone who now has to manage the gap between the image and the group stage. Immediate outlook: The Index does not record kilts and bagpipes as a disaster mechanism. It records being noticed as one. Observation elevated accordingly. Filed: 2026-06-23 / Group stage, post-Haiti