Disaster Index: 8.1 Entry: Beaten Convincingly by Brazil, Depending on Mexico Cause: Scotland defeated by Brazil and now requiring a specific result from a match they cannot influence to advance from the group stage. Category: External Dependency / Structural Evidence: Result against Brazil described as convincing. Mexico have progressed, leaving the group table in a configuration Scotland did not control and cannot now correct. Scotland's tournament survival has passed out of Scottish hands. Historical precedent: Scotland have twice previously exited World Cups on goal difference after failing to win a must-not-lose fixture. The mechanism of exit-by-arithmetic is familiar; the specifics vary. Affected parties: The squad. The support, which prepared for this. The part of the country that checked the group table at a reasonable hour and found it unreasonable. Immediate outlook: Scotland remain in the tournament. The conditions for that remaining true are not Scotland's to set. Filed: 25 June 2026 / Group stage, post-Brazil