Disaster Index: 6.8 Entry: Nerve Test, Pre-Morocco Cause: Scotland entering their second group fixture against a higher-ranked opposition with enough from the first match to have something to lose. Category: Emotional / Tactical Evidence: Morocco qualified for the last sixteen at Qatar 2022. Scotland have arrived at a second match — a condition not experienced at a World Cup since France 1998. The vocabulary of belief is now in circulation. Belief is a different risk category from hope. Historical precedent: Scotland drew with Yugoslavia in 1974, then lost to Brazil. The sequence of encouragement followed by recalibration is documented. Affected parties: The squad; the support carrying the weight of a winnable second fixture; any tactical structure that worked once and is now being asked to work again. Immediate outlook: The Disaster Index rises not because failure is certain but because there is now something to protect. That is a new condition for this campaign.