Disaster Index: 5.1 Entry: Scotland Expects Cause: The gap between what Scotland needed Scott McTominay to be and what the tournament has so far permitted him to become. Category: Emotional / Historical Evidence: McTominay arrived at this World Cup as Scotland's most recognisable club-level performer, a Champions League finalist with Napoli, carrying the projected weight of a nation's ambition in a single midfield role. The tournament has not yet produced the defining moment the projection required. Whether the gap is his or the projection's is a question the Index is not positioned to answer. Historical precedent: Scotland has a documented record of selecting one player to carry the symbolic load of collective hope. The player, in most cases, performs adequately. The adequacy is recorded as disappointment. See also: Baxter, 1967; Dalglish, 1978; McLeish, 1990; Lambert, 1998. Affected parties: McTominay; the portion of the support whose emotional investment was structured around a specific player narrative; journalists now filing retrospective calibration pieces. Immediate outlook: The projection will not be quietly withdrawn. It will be renegotiated around whatever happens next. Filed: 20 June 2026 / Scotland, World Cup group stage