Disaster Index: 5.1 Entry: Administrative Horizon Risk, Pocognoli Cause: Scotland's managerial succession process identifying a frontrunner with no prior connection to the national football culture, seventeen months before the World Cup begins. Category: Administrative Evidence: Sébastien Pocognoli, Belgian, most recently head coach at Monaco, is reported as the Scottish FA's prime candidate to replace Steve Clarke. No appointment confirmed. The process of identifying a frontrunner is itself a finding. Historical precedent: Scotland has previously appointed managers from outside the domestic tradition. The outcomes have varied. The timeline has not always cooperated. Affected parties: Scottish FA; the squad currently in preparation; supporters who have been managing their own administrative optimism since qualification. Immediate outlook: No appointment, no disaster. The hazard is in the gap between candidate and confirmation, and in what the country does with that gap in the interim.