Disaster Index: 6.8 Entry: Morocco Risk Horizon, Post-Haiti Cause: Scotland carrying the emotional weight of a first win in 28 years into a second fixture against a side that eliminated both Belgium and Portugal in 2022 and has arrived at this tournament with structural intent. Category: Structural / External Dependency Evidence: Morocco reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup. Scotland's win over Haiti, however earned, produces a condition the Index has observed before — the relief of the first result being mistaken for evidence about the second. The group remains open. External dependency on other results is now a live variable. Historical precedent: Scotland's 1978 campaign — a group-stage win over the Netherlands following earlier elimination — demonstrates the capacity of a late result to feel like vindication while changing nothing about the structural position. The order of operations matters. Affected parties: The squad, coaching staff, and approximately 5.5 million people who are now, for the first time in some years, permitted to think about the round of 32. Immediate outlook: The Index records a significant upward revision. Morocco is not Haiti. The next fixture will be filed accordingly. Filed: 15 June 2026 / post-Haiti, pre-Morocco window