Disaster Index: 4.1 Entry: The Returning Forward Problem Cause: Scotland recalling a striker whose previous international experience established a pattern of high expectation followed by irregular availability, and framing this as a fresh start. Category: Emotional / Historical Evidence: Oli McBurnie returns to the squad. The framing is "new experience." The Index notes that reframing is not the same as new evidence. Scotland's forward selection history contains several previous new experiences. Historical precedent: Scotland's relationship with the returning forward is well-documented. The emotional reset is attempted before the evidence has accumulated. The pattern reasserts itself with patience. Affected parties: Scotland supporters who have allocated optimism to this position before; Oli McBurnie, who has not yet had the opportunity to disappoint or vindicate. Immediate outlook: Cautiously filed. The squad announcement is the pressure event. The match is the evidence.