Disaster Index: 5.8 Entry: The Bolivia Problem Cause: Scotland dismantling Bolivia in a pre-tournament warm-up, generating confidence that the available evidence cannot fully support. Category: Emotional / Historical Evidence: Bolivia ranked 79th by FIFA. Scotland's positive result against comparable opposition in 1978 warm-up fixtures preceded the Argentina collapse. The Guardian match report notes Steve Clarke has declined to make bold predictions; the surrounding atmosphere has made them anyway. Historical precedent: June 1978. Scotland defeated Iran in pre-tournament preparations and arrived in Argentina with a country convinced. The mechanism is not the result. The mechanism is what the result is asked to carry. Affected parties: Scottish supporters currently revising their assessment of the Morocco fixture; administrative optimism now operating without its usual friction. Immediate outlook: The warm-up has done its work. The Index notes this without additional comment.