Disaster Index: 6.8 Entry: External Dependency, Group Stage Cause: Scotland's progression from the group stage requiring favourable results elsewhere, alongside their own. Category: External Dependency Evidence: One win from three may be sufficient — depending on the behaviour of other groups, other squads, and other afternoons Scotland has no control over. The question has been asked. The arithmetic permits it. The arithmetic does not guarantee it. Historical precedent: Scotland's tournament record includes multiple exits in which the required combination of results arrived everywhere except the one place Scotland could influence. Affected parties: The squad. The supporter who has already done the calculation on their phone. Immediate outlook: The window exists. Windows of this type have existed before. Filed: 2026-06-12 / Pre-match, Group Stage