Disaster Index: 5.3 Entry: The Dykes Coefficient Cause: Scotland's most reliable winning condition is presence of a striker who does not score reliably. Category: Structural / Historical Evidence: Dykes in the starting XI correlates with Scotland winning. Dykes scoring correlates with nothing in particular. The mechanism is unresolved. The record is real. Historical precedent: Scotland have, on multiple occasions across qualifying campaigns, constructed functional results around a forward whose primary contribution resists conventional statistical capture. The pattern is established. The explanation is not. Affected parties: Scotland supporters who would prefer the winning condition to be more legible; opposition analysts attempting to model the threat. Immediate outlook: Morocco will prepare for what Dykes does statistically. The available data does not contain what Dykes does structurally. This is either a significant advantage or a significant coincidence. The Index does not distinguish between them. Filed: 16 June 2026 / pre-Morocco